There are three main conspiracy theories regarding how the fire started at the Waco Siege. The first theory is that the Branch Davidians started the fire themselves. The second is the fire started because of live rounds and tear gas (CS gas). Lastly, the third is that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) are responsible for starting the fire.

    The first theory proposes that the Branch Davidians started the deadly fire themselves. According to PBS, “In addition, FBI listening devices seemed to establish that the Davidians were overheard making statements such as, "Spread the fuel," some six hours before the fires began” (FAQs | Waco - The Inside Story | FRONTLINE | PBS. 2). Yet, the Davidians that survived claimed that they did not start the fires. However, there is proof that this is false; “Although one Branch Davidian stated that an FBI tank had tipped over a lantern, videotapes show that the tank had struck the building a minute and a half before the fire began. Also, some of the surviving Davidians' clothing showed evidence of lighter fluid and other accelerants” (2). To further this, The Department of Justice states, “The arson team likewise concluded that, given the multiple simultaneous points of origin, the fire could not possibly have been started by a ferret round entering a window and knocking over a container of flammable liquid” (Department of Justice | Report to the Deputy Attorney General on the Events at Waco, Texas: The Aftermath of the April 19 Fire.). There is physical proof of this theory; therefore, it is plausible.

    The second conspiracy theory is that the fire was caused by live rounds and CS gas. According to The Department of Justice, “The arson team concluded that ‘the fire was not caused by nor was it intensified by any chemicals present in the tear-gassing operations.’ The team noted that the two methods used to deliver the gas were non-incendiary. The pressurized gas delivered through the combat engineering vehicles was sprayed through a nozzle using carbon dioxide as the propellant. The team noted that carbon dioxide would be incapable of igniting and might even have acted as a fire inhibiting agent” (Department of Justice | Report to the Deputy Attorney General on the Events at Waco, Texas: The Aftermath of the April 19 Fire.). There is no substantial or physical evidence supporting this theory, so it is not plausible.

    Lastly, the third theory suggests that the ATF started the fire in the Mount Carmel Center. Author Stuart A. Wright stated, “Seizing upon a purported impasse in negotiations that the HRT command helped to create, a tactical plan was implemented, entailing a massive insertion of the riot-control chemical agent, CS” (Wright 108). Although it is widely accepted that the FBI majorly mishandled the situation in Waco, there is no substantial or physical proof that the ATF purposely started the fire.

    Who is truly responsible for the tragedy that killed over seventy people is still debated today. The most plausible theory being that the Branch Davidians started the fire.