Whats the story?

On April 19, 1993, more than 70 were killed when a fire started at the Branch ​Davidian Compound​ located in the ​Mount Carmel Center​ in McLennan County, ​Texas (​Remembering Waco | Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives). Before this, four Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) agents were killed, and twenty others were wounded from a two-and-a-half-hour gun fight after approaching the compound and coming into contact with David Koresh, the leader of the Branch Davidian cult (1). A ​cease-fire was called​ and 24 people, mostly consisting of children, were released from the compound (1). This was when the ​51-day standoff​ between the ATF and the Branch Davidians began (1). The standoff ​ended​ when the compound burst into flames (1). The cause of this fire is still disputed to this day. As a result of this event, several conspiracy theories have developed:

1. Was the fire started by the Davidians themselves?

2. Did the fire start because of the live rounds and CS gas?

3. Was the fire started by the ATF?

Let us analyze the likelihood that the fires were started by the ATF.